Election 2010: Gubernatorial Scorecard

Election 2010: Gubernatorial Scorecard


New polling in Colorado moves that state's gubernatorial race from Leans Dem to Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Voters will elect governors in 37 states this November. Nineteen of those governorships are now held by Democrats, while Republicans sit in the governor’s chair in 18 of the states.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard shows Democrats solidly ahead in two states, with five more leaning their way. Republicans are running strongly in 17 states, and four more are leaning GOP.

No states with a Republican governor are considered likely to elect a Democrat in November. But six states now headed by Democrats – Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming – are seen as likely GOP pickups.

Nine states are currently viewed as Toss-Ups, including Florida and Rhode Island. The Toss-Up states include five currently with Republican governors and four with Democrats as their chief executives.

Adding spice to the political mix is the fact that these governors will all be in place as the states redistrict on the basis of new Census figures, a process that sets the boundaries of congressional districts and generally benefits the party in power.

The state results and overall projections will be updated whenever new polling data justifies a change.

In the table below, the states marked in red currently have a Republican governor. Those in blue currently have a Democratic governor.

Solid Dem
New Hampshire
New York

Solid GOPOklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
AL
Alaska
Arizona
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Michigan
Nebraska
Nevada


Lean Dem
Arkansas
Connecticut
MA
Maryland
CA



Gubernatorial
Scorecard Tables:
Current Projected Result
Democrats
14

Independents
0

Republicans
27

Toss-Up
9


Election 2010 To Date
Solid Democratic
2

Lean Democratic
5

Solid Independent
0

Lean Independent
0

Lean Republican
4

Solid Republican
17

Toss-Up
9

No Gubernatorial Race In 2010
Democrats
7

Independents
0

Republicans
6

Overall Snapshot:
Held/Solid Democratic
9

Leans Democratic
5

Held/Solid Independent
0

Leans Independent
0

Leans Republican
4

Held/Solid Republican
23

Toss-Up
9
__________________

Connecticut Results as of Thursday, October 07, 2010

The race to be Connecticut’s next governor is a little closer this month.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state shows Democrat Dan Malloy earning 49% support, while his Republican challenger, Thomas Foley, picks up 44% of the vote. One percent (1%) favors another candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race remains Leans Dem in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Two weeks ago, Malloy held a 10-point lead over Foley, 50% to 40%. In surveys dating back to May, Malloy has consistently run ahead of Foley. In those surveys, Malloy has earned anywhere from 38% to 50% of the vote, while support for Foley has ranged from 33% to 40%.

Foley, a businessman and former U.S. ambassador to Ireland, is favored by 82% of Republicans in the state, while Malloy, the former mayor of Stamford, earns support from 79% of Democrats. The GOP candidate has a slight edge among voters not affiliated with either party.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on October 5, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In a survey conducted the night after their first head-to-head debate, Democrat Richard Blumenthal has moved further ahead of Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Malloy’s supporters say they’ve already made up their minds how they will vote this November. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Foley voters say the same.

A plurality (47%) of Connecticut voters say states should not be allowed to opt out of the new national health care plan. Forty-two percent (42%) disagree.

Only 54% believe the policies of the federal government encourage illegal immigration, lower than the finding nationally. Voters in the state are narrowly divided over whether enforcement of laws against illegal immigration should be handled by states or left to the federal government. This, too, is lower than findings nationwide.

Only 15% of Connecticut voters consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, roughly in line with the national average. Seventy-one percent (71%) say they are not part of the grassroots movement. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.

Among Tea Partiers in the state, 88% support the Republican, while 63% of non-Tea Party members favor the Democrat.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of all voters in Connecticut hold a favorable opinion of Malloy, with 19% who view him Very Favorably. Thirty-nine percent (39%) regard the Democrat unfavorably, including 15% who share a Very Unfavorable opinion of him.

Ratings for Foley are 53% favorable and 40% unfavorable, including 14% Very Favorable and 14% Very Unfavorable.

Republican Governor Jodi Rell decided not to seek reelection this November. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of the state’s voters approve of the job she is doing, while 41% disapprove.

Additional questions from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho,Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska,Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.